Defensieve: Purdue Struggles Down the Stretch

A third and fourth straight poor defensive performance dooms the Boilermakers.

Expectations set frustrations. You don’t get frustrated at the sun rising in the east. You don’t get frustrated when the family French Bulldog snags a fallen scrap of cheese. You certainly no longer, at this point, get frustrated when Purdue’s football team loses a conference game. But the basketball team losing six, and four at Mackey Arena? That’s a little different.

Matt Painter’s own frustrations seeped through this week. His basketball team, ranked first in the country before a ball had hit the floor, lost its six and seventh games in exasperating fashion. Skilled though the team may be, it has lost all semblance of an ability to guard the ball. The lane in front of the Purdue basket is an open house, with Purdue defenders offering complimentary layups and dunks as welcome gifts. Painter can’t bench the offenders. By his own judgement, it’s not one player. It’s everyone.

Painter is also frustrated with the fanbase, though it appears to be no match for the fanbase’s frustration with the team. A good coach defends his players in public, and Painter valiantly tried to put the onus for support back on the fans.

“The thing I don’t like about it is I think Notre Dame, Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio State, they should blast us,” Painter said. “I don’t like when Purdue blasts Purdue. You’re not with us there.”

There’s truth to the comments. The season is not over, and despite the snarkier assertions from brave anonymous Redditors, the team is, in fact, trying to win. It’s, um, unlikely the players are truly resting on their NIL money, content to come up short in their lifelong passion on national television. Even Braden Smith’s ill-timed comments on Twitch can’t shake that, though telling fans to kiss-his-millionaire-ass is probably not the best way to endear oneself in tough times.

However, expecting fans to be unconditional in their support would be one of the more naïve thoughts a human could have. They may be unconditional in their loyalty, but they’ll complain about it the entire time, especially when they thought a Final Four run might be around the corner- and who’s fault is that, really? But the season is not over. The ceiling for Purdue is still incredibly high, and that is the most frustrating part.

#13 MICHIGAN STATE (L, 76-74)

- The battle between the Big Ten’s best point guards saw a double-double from Braden Smith but a win From Jeremy Fears Jr, who avoided serious injury during the game. The torque derived from the whiplash of flopping can be detrimental, but he toughed it out. In all seriousness, Fears Jr played very well, finishing the game with a less sexy box score than Smith, but also fewer mistakes (6:1 turnover ratio to Smith’s 10:4).

- Purdue shot nearly fifty percent from the floor, out-rebounded the Spartans, got 28 points off the bench and still lost on its home floor. It was at the same time both a strong performance and a futile one, as they never quite figured out how to stay in front of Michigan State. It was also the first time Purdue has lost while keeping their opponent under 35% from three (a trend first pointed out here last week). Oh well.

- The closing seconds featured an unfortunate echo of the UCLA game. With 3.4 seconds left, Purdue called timeout, only to get a missed long Smith three. Granted, there was less time to work with, but the result was the same as Cox’s miss at Pauley Pavilion. For a team so deep with sets and actions, the final shot gameplans have seemingly either been underdeveloped or ignored.

@ OHIO STATE (L, 80-77 OT)

- The Michigan State loss was a hard-fought game to a tough, ranked opponent, one led by a legendary coach that Painter has dueled to an even split. Purdue’s eight point loss at Ohio State contained no such silver linings. Facing a team desperate for a signature win to slap on their NCAA tournament resume, the Boilermakers played with the excitement of an indoor cat caught in rainstorm. To say that they were not trying is not fair. To say that their energy and execution levels were beneath Ohio State’s is, and likely an understatement.

- Somehow, Jake Diebler is now 3-0 against Purdue and 40-29 against everyone else. Ohio State fans have not been exactly clamoring for a lengthy contract extension. If only they could play Purdue every game. G Bruce Thornton and G John Mobley combined for 41 points, and Ohio State became the fourth straight team to shoot over 50% from the floor against Purdue. The Boilermaker defense is plummeting at the wrong time, and the inability for pretty much anyone on the team to stay in front of a ballhandler in a one-on-one situation is issue number one, two, and three. Smith lamented after the game, “I think they're fixable. Obviously, if I knew what it was. I think it would already be done…” Purdue is currently 32nd in KenPom’s defensive rating. It could be worse, though not by much if the goal is a Final Four. A more desperate coach might switch to zone. It’s getting that bad.

- At the very least, it seems Trey Kaufman-Renn has found his footing. Purdue has let him go to work in the post to better effect than most of the season. He’s back to feasting on one-on-one matchups, shooting 73% over the last three games. TKR’s passing leveled up this season, and he had 5 and 7 assists against Indiana and MSU before being shutout against OSU. With the way Purdue’s defense has been trending, they’ll have to outscore everyone from now till April. TKR’s recent performances will go a long way to achieving that goal.

NEXT UP

Wednesday, 3/3/26

Vs. Northwestern Wildcats (13-16 (5-13))

Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, IL

Line: Purdue -9.5

The loss to Ohio State came against a desperate team with a coach that, apparently, is Matt Painter’s Kryptonite. Northwestern does not present that same challenge. While Wednesday’s game is likely their last chance for a signature win, the Wildcats are a mere 4-13 against Purdue under Chris Collins. Northwestern comes into the game on a winning streak, a trio of close wins against Maryland, Indiana and Oregon. F Nick Martinelli is their star, a three level scorer who averages 22 ppg and 6 rpg (he and G Jake West are the only players shooting above 35% from three). Northwestern is KenPom’s 70^th ranked team, an unusually high ranking for a team three games under five hundred. For all the consternation about Purdue’s seven losses, all have come to teams ranked 43^rd or higher, so a loss to the Wildcats would be an extreme outlier. If they bring any sort of defensive fortitude, Purdue shouldn’t need to worry.

Prediction: #15 Purdue 78, Northwester 69

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