Tournament Time

Purdue is relieved to be rid of the regular season. A rematch with Northwestern looms.

The regular season ended in familiar fashion for Purdue; that is to say, inconsistently. An escape at Northwestern was followed by one last defensive letdown at Mackey Arena, a Senior Night that saw the Big Three of Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn take the floor for the final time.

Make no mistake, it was a bummer of a Senior Night. However, before the next two weeks are allowed to determine the senior class’s entire legacy, some appreciation for what they’ve done in their four seasons at Purdue: individually, it’s impressive. Smith owns the Big Ten record for assists and still has a chance at the national record. He’s tenth in Purdue’s all-time scoring ranks and owns the four highest total assist seasons. Not bad for the 209^th ranked recruit who was initially offered only by Appalachian State, Montana and Toledo. Purdue fans continue to thank Jameel Brown for de-committing for Penn State.

Loyer wears the Boilermaker career 3PM crown (passing Carsen Edwards). TKR had the tenth highest scoring season in Purdue history as a junior and sacrificed maybe a thousand more points to help the team (between playing second fiddle to Zach Edey then sharing the spotlight this year). Painter said early on he’d be an All-Big Ten player, and he was. Collectively, the seniors are three wins away from being Purdue’s winningest class (behind Caleb Furst’s 113).

But now we turn to win-or-go-home basketball, with anywhere from two to ten games remaining. Predicting how far Purdue will go in both the Big Ten Tournament and March Madness depends only on your outlook on life. What you base your optimism on? Do you even have optimism? Do past performances predict future events? Recent evidence shows a team floundering defensively, relying on outlier performances from role players to overcome team-wide lapses. Conference opponents seemed to be locked in on their weaknesses. The Big Ten Tourney crown may remain out of reach.

On the other hand, the NCAA Tournament is famously not only against Big Ten teams, and Purdue has been a beast in the non-con for years. The Boilermakers would not play a B1G team until the Sweet Sixteen, a round they have reached three of the last four seasons. They are still a top 10 analytical team, and better than last year’s version, which also stumbled down the stretch before rallying to the point of being one missed offensive foul against Houston away from the Elite Eight.

It’s not a stretch to expect their level of play to rise. It’s also not a stretch to expect structural issues that were apparent back in the scrimmage against Kentucky to continue to plague them. Regardless, it’s a relief that the time for hypotheticals is over. Forget them. It’s March.

Oh yeah, the recap:

@ NORTHWESTERN (W, 70-66)

- Purdue’s least heralded starter saved the day against the Wildcats. After trailing for a good portion of the game, CJ Cox went nuclear in the second half, scoring 21 of his 27 and outdueling (though not outscoring) NU’s F Nick Martinelli (who finished with 28). Every time Purdue needed a clutch bucket, Cox was there.

- Smith has had flashier stat lines, but Northwestern’s gameplan made him the gravitational center of the game. Chris Collins and the Wildcats ran constant blitzes and double teams to ball screens involving Smith, designed to force other Boilermakers to beat them. Painter & Co. adjusted the offensive positional spacing and used the double teams to their advantage, freeing up Cox for open threes.

- Purdue escaped despite giving up over 40% on threes and receiving only two made baskets from their bench. A key component? TKR and Oscar Cluff combined to outrebound Northwestern by themselves (17 to 15). Purdue finished with 29, including nine offensive.

WISCONSIN (L, 97-93)

- Nick Boyd was “only” an All-Big Ten Second Teamer, but he was by far the best player on the floor. Unstoppable in the closing stretch, Boyd scored ten points in the last five minutes as Wisconsin fended off a furious Purdue run. He abused Purdue’s weak on-ball defense, continually getting into the lane if not all the way to the basket. With near six years of college basketball under his belt, Boyd made Purdue’s senior night his own (and possibly his third or fourth).

- Purdue was down 94-91 with 39 seconds left before featuring a possession that contained, in succession, a Smith missed 3, a Cox missed jumper, and a Loyer missed 3. Cluff was then fouled but made only the second, allowing Wisconsin to salt the game away. With no consistent defense to be relied upon, they needed a clutch bucket. They came up one short.

- It’s a shame Purdue couldn’t get a stop when they needed it, because their offense was in tournament form. They scored 93 points, shot 51% from the field, 44% from three, and got to the line 19 times. Four players hit double figures, two hit twenty, and the bench chipped in eighteen. Unfortunately, all of Wisconsin’s offensive numbers were better. They became the sixth straight team to shoot over 50% against Purdue, a trend that was troubling four games ago.

NEXT UP

Wednesday, 3/3/26

Vs. (#15 seed) Northwestern Wildcats (15-18, 5-15)

United Center, Chicago, IL

Line: Purdue -12.5

Purdue finds itself in a rematch with the feisty Wildcats, who beat Penn State and prevented a Purdue rubber match with Indiana to get to this point. Martinelli has ascended to another level, scoring 20+ points in seven straight games (including four games of 28 or more). Purdue slept walked through their first half a week ago and cannot make the same mistake again. If Northwestern sticks with their “double-team Braden Smith at all costs” defensive strategy, then Purdue will need one of Cox/Benter/Mayer/Harris to catch fire. Purdue also may try to go at Martinelli a little more to test his reluctance to foul. Purdue’s size advantage inside has not changed in the week and a half since the first matchup. Even with their recent wins, Northwestern is 57^th in KenPom. Purdue’s worst lost is still to #44 Indiana. If trusting Ken Pomroy’s analytics are your thing, a Northwestern win would be an outlier. The winner will face Nebraska, the only top four seed that Purdue has beaten this year. Expect them to earn the chance to double up the Huskers.

Prediction: #18 Purdue 82, Northwestern 79

*This post was brought to you by Purdue’s lowest AP Poll ranking on the season. Bet on it not going any lower.